By Paul Homewood
I want to follow up on Ed Miliband’s claim about the impact of the Ukraine war on energy prices and the cost of living, something he says still “stalks families today”.
It goes without saying that gas prices shot through the roof during 2022, as gas supplies became in short supply.
The OBR assessed the cost to the government of its energy support packages to consumers:
https://obr.uk/box/an-international-comparison-of-the-cost-of-energy-support-packages/
They said these cost £78.2 billion over the two year period, of which £72.0 billion was covered the various household and business support packages. The rest included the freeze on fuel duties – irrelevant, as they been frozen since 2011 anyway- and the bailout of Bulb Energy. Although high gas prices might have been the catalyst, the real cause for that was poor financial regulation.
Against the £72.0 billion, the government collected £39.9 billion in windfall taxes on energy companies. The two things are, of course, directly related. It was not a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. It was giving Paul back the money he had had to pay Peter in the first place!
So we arrive at a net cost of £32.1 billion. A lot of money, of course, but less than two years worth of renewable subsidies. If Miliband regards this as a market meltdown, what would he call the £96 billion bill for those subsidies in the next five years?
Even after the government energy support packages, the energy cap still remained higher than before the Ukraine war, and continues to:
https://heatable.co.uk/boiler-advice/history-of-ofgems-energy-price-cap
Since October 2021, the annual energy cap has risen from £1277 to £1849, an increase of £572, some of which is due to normal inflation. Of this £572, about half, £288, is on gas.
But if you had switched from gas to electricity, whatever colour, as Miliband wants, you would have been much worse off; electricity is more than four times the price of gas.
The amount you are currently worse off in terms of power prices alone is £284 a year, half of which is accounted for by general inflation anyway.
And as we know, most of the increase in electricity prices in the last few years is due to increasing environmental levies, not wholesale costs.
In short, Miliband’s claim that his green transition would have saved consumers money is pure bunkum.