By Paul Homewood
Are storms getting worse in the UK?
You would be excused for thinking they are, given the torrent of headlines year after year:
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I have certainly seen several comments in the media to that effect after Storm Eowyn last month. The Met Office themselves stoke this fake propaganda, with comments like this:
Most climate projections indicate that winter windstorms will increase slightly in number and intensity over the UK as a result of climate change.
You might recall a story I ran last month, when Sheffield City Council blamed climate change for a £5m tree maintenance bill, stating that the increased regularity of storms had caused costs to balloon.
Nowhere at any stage have I seen the Met Office publicly correct this disinformation and acknowledge in the media what their own Annual Reviews of the UK Climate say year after year – that storms are less intense and less frequent than they used to be – see here.
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A year ago, I carried out an analysis of wind speeds at Bingley, West Yorkshire, using data provided by the Met Office. It showed a clear decline in maximum gust speeds each year since 1972:
(The maximum gust from Eowyn was 54 kts, though it is not shown on the graph).
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I have now used the same data to calculate the number of stormy days each year, defined as over 50 kts. The results are startling as well as damning for the misinformation spewed by the media, which is sustained by the Met Office’s refusal to tell the public the truth.
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NOTE: There are 1076 days with no Met Office data between 1973 and 2009. Since 2009 there are 7 missing days.
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I really don’t need to comment, do I? The contrast is so stark that I even rechecked all of the data.
But what is also remarkable is that the 1970s appeared every bit as bad as the 1990s, both for peak gusts and frequency.
In 1974 there were 13 days over 50 kts at Bingley,including six in December alone, with the 28th peaking at 66 kts. A glance at the monthly weather report proves that the whole country had the same sort of weather:
We have not had a month like that in recent years. 78 kts (90mph) at Kew is simply astonishing, as is 83 kts at Eskdalemuir amd Middlesborough– note these were all set on separate days.
Bingley is of course just one location, but my analysis correlates closely with the UK plot of 50 kt storms, which also shows a marked decline in storm days after the turn of the century:
It is time that the Met Office claim clean and told the public the truth about storms.