By Paul Homewood
The promise made on P19 of the Net Zero Strategy was that we will have electricity available “at the flick of a switch from abundant, cheap British renewables….” This promise has now become in the NESO Clean Power 2030 report:
“Consumer engagement is a vital part of efficient and low-cost use of clean power and, in the first instance, regular demand side flexibility responsive to TOUTs would typically be used to reduce peak demand.”
“Consumer engagement” is code for “rising prices to curb demand followed by rolling blackouts” So by 2030 it is planned that we will have rolling blackouts at peak demand in order to stop the grid collapsing.
But how much “consumer engagement” will there need to be? John Brown has attempted to quantify this by developing a model of the NESO Clean Power 2030 Pathways using real demand, wind and solar data for 2023 downloaded from the Gridwatch Templar website into an Excel file. This data is then each multiplied with own factor to give a prediction for 2030. All variations of the model show that the green generated power plus 35 GW of unabated gas is insufficient to match demand and hence Flex (interconnectors and DSR (rolling blackouts) will be required, up to 24.2 GW according to NESO themselves.
The use of an Excel file means that it is possible to analyse minimum and maximum green power and the minimum Flex power required to limit unabated gas to NESO’s target of 35 GW and 5% of UK electricity generation. The Excel file also displays the longest continuous duration of when green power does not match demand and the energy deficit for this period. The model calculates the annual energy for demand, wind, solar, the green generated dispatchable power required, Flex (i/c + DSR) power required, unabated gas and possible excess energy for export.
For instance, for one set of multiplication factors it is predicted that for the FF&R Pathway:
Max Flex Power to limit unabated gas to 35 GW : 18 GW and requiring 41 TWhrs of energy.
Max Demand Power: 67 GW
Min Green Power: 8 GW
Max Green Power: 101 GW
Total Green Energy Available: 407 TWhrs
Max Green Power Excess over Demand: 64 GW
Total Green Power Excess Duration: 212 days
Longest Continuous Green Power Excess Run: 12 days
Total Amount of Dispatchable Green Energy required: 17 TWhrs out of a total of 38 TWhrs available
Total Green Energy for Export: 84 TWhrs (NESO report is for 83 TWhrs)
Max Green Power Deficiency over Demand: 53 GW
Total Green Power Deficiency Duration: 153 days
Longest Continuous Green Power Deficiency Run: 8 days requiring 40 GW max power and 3.7 TWhrs of energy coming from unabated gas + Flex to match demand.
Total Green Energy Deficiency: 48 TWhrs
Total Amount of Unabated Gas Required: 7 TWhrs (if limited to max 35 GW)
Total Amount of Flex Energy Required to Limit Unabated Gas to 35 GW: 41 TWhrs
The model enables anyone to make their own assessment of the multiplication factors and obtain their own results.
To obtain the link to download all the Excel files plus a full explanation, summary and graphs email John Brown at jbxcagwnz@gmail.com