By Paul Homewood
https://www.neso.energy/publications/clean-power-2030
Yesterday I discussed the likelihood of Orsted pulling out of Hornsea 4, as part of their retrenchment. And with Vattenfall already opposed to joining future CfD auctions, there is now an enormous gap between Miliband’s 2030 plans and reality.
As NESO’s Clean Power 2030 makes clear, we will need to increase offshore wind power from 14.7 GW to 50.6 GW by 2030:
https://www.neso.energy/publications/clean-power-2030
Assuming Orsted do pull out of Hornsea 4, there is about 12 GW of new build offshore wind capacity due on stream, which already have CfDs. That takes us to about 27 GW.
East Anglia 2, which along with Hornsea 4, won contracts in last year’s AR6 CfD auction, is targeted to come on stream in 2028/29. It is therefore likely that if projects do not get CfDs this year will not be ready by 2030 anyway.
But more to the point, are we honestly going to find anyone prepared to build another 23 GW in the next five years?