By Paul Homewood
h/t Philip Bratby
In 2020, the World Bank published this report on the potential of solar power:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/solar-photovoltaic-power-potential-by-country
It was quite a detailed analysis, taking into account not just sunshine itself, but also the impact of air temperature, terrain horizon, and albedo, as well as module tilt, configuration, shading,
soiling, and other factors affecting the system performance.
It was measured thus:
PVOUT is the amount of power generated per unit of installed PV capacity over the long term (the specific yield), measured in kilowatt hours per installed kilowatt peak (kWh/kWp).
Global map showing practical solar energy potential after excluding for physical, environmental and other factors
Out of 230 countries assessed, the UK came in at 229th. Only Ireland fared worse!
Nevertheless the idiot Miliband wants to triple solar power in the UK to 47 GW in the next five years.
According to BEIS Levelised Costs, CAPEX for large scale solar is £410/kW, which works out at £19.3 billion.
Output would be 45 TWh a year, and operational costs would be £10/MWh, ie £450 million a year.
Over 15 years then, the total cost would be £26 billion.
We will still need a full fleet of CCGT plants, with all the costs associated. The only extra cost we would incur if there was no solar power would be for fuel.
DESNZ projections say that natural gas prices will be around 70p/therm between now and 2032, at current prices – that’s £24/MWh.
Assuming 53% fuel efficiency, the fuel cost for a CCGT would be £45.28/MWh of electricity produced. On 45 TWh a year, that’s £2.0 billion, or £30 billion over 15 years.
On the face of it, solar power could save £4 billion, but these costings don’t include cost of capital. A return on capital of 10%, for instance, would cost £1.9 billion annually.
On top of that are storage costs, to manage variable output during the day, and avoid the need to throw away surplus electricity at times of peak output and low demand.
When everything is taken into account, there is no case for solar power.