By Paul Homewood
https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
SMMT have released the final data for car registrations last year. BEVs ended the year with a market share of 19.6%, well below the ZEV mandate of 22%, despite a bumper December.
BEV registrations for the month were 56% compared to December 2023, which clearly is not a representative figure. Remember that these are registrations, not sales. It is therefore extremely likely that carmakers have been pre-registering thousands of EVs, in order to get closer to their target. We also know they have been offering unaffordable discounts for purchases before the end of the year.
Either way, there appears to be no way that BEV share will rise to the mandated 28% this year.
It is worth looking behind the numbers though.
First of all, EV take up in the private sector remains stubbornly low at one-in-ten. There is simply no way total EV sales will get anywhere target if private buyers, who account for 38% of the market, refuse to buy them.
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2025/01/record-ev-market-share-but-weak-private-demand-frustrates-ambition/
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Secondly sales of petrol and diesels fell sharply in December, as carmakers cut back on production, in order to artificially raise the ratio of EVs.
This is evident from the November manufacturing figures, which are 30% down on November 2023.
Registration of Ford cars last year in the UK fell by 23%, Nissan 12%, Toyota 8% and Vauxhall 21%. These are alarming figures, not least for the two Japanese companies.
Nissan, for instance, saw registrations fall from 100K to 89K between 2023 and 2024. Sales of the Leaf have been plummeting recently, and sales of the petrol/diesel Qashqai and Juke models account for 77K on their own. Clearly Nissan will miss the 22% target by a long way.
So will Toyota, who have been been specialising in hybrids in recent years. Late to the EV party, their only electric offering, the Toyota bZ4X, was only introduced to the UK last June, and costs over £40,000, well outside the affordability of the mass market sector. Toyota registrations fell from 108K to 101K last year. Expect more large cutbacks next year to reduce sales of petrol/diesel.
Neither Nissan or Toyota are in strong position to meet the challenge of Chinese made EVs, and there surely must be question marks over their future UK operations, as they will no longer be viable under existing ZEV mandates.
Meanwhile Chinese EV manufacturers, Polestar and BYD, clocked up 17481 EV registrations in 2024, giving them 13635 surplus ZEV allowances, which they may be able sell at a price close £15000 each to carmakers who have fallen short of target and will otherwise have to pay that much in fines. That will hand Polestar and BYD a nice little windfall of £204 million!
Tesla too will rubbing their hands with glee, with their 50334 registrations, potentially worth £600 million.
If you wanted to destroy the UK car industry, while enriching Chinese and US manufacturers, I cannot think of a better way to do it!