By Paul Homewood
The Government has begun consultations on the role of hybrid cars between 2030 and 2035:
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The UK automotive and charging industries have been invited to shape the UK’s transition to zero emission vehicles, as the UK government works with the sector to harness the huge opportunities for economic growth and improve living standards for working people.
Today (24 December 2024), Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has launched a consultation to ask views from industry on how to deliver on the manifesto commitment to restore the 2030 phase out date for new purely petrol and diesel cars and make the transition to zero emissions vehicles a success.
This consultation is focused on how, not if, we reach the 2030 target. It will give the sector the opportunity to consider how the current arrangements and flexibilities are working, which hybrid cars can be sold alongside zero emission models between 2030 and 2035, and any further support measures to help make the transition a success for industry and consumers.
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The decision to bring forward the ban on ICE cars to 2030 from 2035 has already been made, but it was always the intention to allow hybrids to be sold up to 2035. The main purpose of this consulation is to define which hybrids are allowed and which are not. The Government’s favoured option is to base it on a CO2 cap of 115g/km:
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The consultation lists the different hybrids, and it appears that the cap would exclude all HEVs, and possibly many PHEVs:
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Currently most PHEVs are classified well below the 115g limit, but it is now recognised that the official measurements are grossly underestimated. This is because in the real world, drivers use the internal combustion engine much more than thought.
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In short, the hybrid market is very much a dead end for carmakers. HEVs, which account for two thirds of hybrid sales, have no future past 2030. Even if some PHEVs meet the cap, the ZEV mandate will surely be squeezed each year between 2030 and 2035, rising from 80% to 100%, meaning they will become progressively harder to sell.
Meanwhile, sales of hybrids now will continue to towards non-electric sales as far as the ZEV mandate is concerned, meaning that ZEV fines are more likely.
As a result, I cannot see any further development of hybrids in the UK market, with carmakers quickly phasing them out.
