By Paul Homewood
h/t Philip Bratby
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https://www.neso.energy/publications/clean-power-2030
You will recall that the NESO told Ed Miliband that we would need about 12 GW of demand flexibility come 2030, because of the inability of intermittent renewables to be switched up and down in order to meet demand.
Some of this may come from smart charging of EVs, ie charging at night rather than at times of peak demand. This is not really relevant however, as EV charging is a tiny factor at the moment.
That leaves about 6 GW of flexibility based on current demand patterns. Residential demand peaks at around 15 GW in winter, and including Industrial demand adds up to about 20 GW.
In other words, NESO are “hoping” that a quarter of customers will voluntarily switch off appliances when asked to.
This always seemed pie-in-the-sky, and now the Telegraph has revealed that hundreds of thousands of customers have dropped out of the government’s Demand Flexibility Service. Last year more than 2 million households signed up in return for discounts on their bills. This year the number has declined to 750,000 according to NESO.
The full Telegraph story is here.
If demand is not reduced voluntarily, the only other option is rolling blackouts.
