By Paul Homewood
I asked the OBR for their projections of electricity prices which they used in the latest budget forecast:
Economic & Fiscal Outlook
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As the OBR notes, 2025 to 2027 are based on expectations. The years after grow in line with inflation.
These assumptions are closely linked to their forecast for has prices – peaking in 2025, and then falling back.
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https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2024/
What these projections tell us is that market prices of electricity will remain significantly lower than the CfD prices of offshore wind, except for next year when there will be parity.
We don’t know what might happen with the international market for gas in a decade or more time. But indications are that renewables will remain poor value for money for the foreseeable future.