By Paul Homewood
h/t Hugh Sharman
This is a thought provoking analysis by Art Berman, an energy expert with with a résumé boasting over 40 years as a petroleum geologist.
Here he takes apart the IEA’s politically determined energy projections:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) shared some good news last week—clean energy is gaining ground, fossil fuel use is peaking, and carbon reductions look achievable.
But dig into the numbers, and a different picture emerges. The IEA’s forecast rests on shaky assumptions, wishful thinking, and contradictions that cast serious doubt on the credibility of its projections.
The biggest problem with the rosy headlines in World Energy Outlook 2024 is that coal use—the largest source of global carbon emissions—will decline by just 0.5% per year through 2030, and only 0.8% annually from 2030 to 2050 (Figure 1 and all charts in this post are for the IEA’s “Stated Policies” scenario—because that is the most likely case).
It’s hard to believe that significant progress is being made in the transition to clean energy when coal consumption barely declines.
Adding to that disappointment, the IEA forecasts that oil consumption will increase by 0.75% annually and natural gas use will grow at 1.6% per year over the same period. How can carbon reductions be within reach—as the IEA claims—when net fossil fuel consumption does not return to 2010 levels until 2035?
Read the full analysis here.