By Paul Homewood
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckgmx8vm8pnt
Based on the satellite data we have available, Helene was at most a Cat 3 hurricane, with winds of about 125 mph.
The claims of 140 mph are based on aircraft data, which are not backed up by ground or satellite measurements.
The satellite-based Digital Dvorak data used to estimate wind speeds peaked at around 110kts, (125 mph), and as is often the case was well below the Warning Intensity, which is used as the official measurement, even though it is by definition a forecast.
Ground based data shows much lower wind speeds:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al09/al092024.public.015.shtml?
At ground level, the highest recorded wind speeds seem to have been at Cedar Key, being much lower at 64mph sustained.
No ground measurements have been given for the eye of the storm, but this highlights the real problem of comparing satellite and aircraft data with the pre-satellite era. If Helene had hit the Panhandle in, say, the 1930s, it probably would have been categorised as Cat 1 at most.
There is a similar issue with minimum pressure readings. Helene is said to have had minimum pressure of 938mb, again based on Hurricane Hunter estimates. At ground level, the lowest reading was 948mb:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al09/al092024.update.09270401.shtml?
As a reminder, US landfalling hurricanes of 940mb and below are common in the historical record:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html
It is the same thing with storm surge. Despite warnings of 15 to 20ft of storm surge, fortunately it nowhere seems to have exceeded 9ft.
It may well be that higher winds and surges are found once NOAA get all their data in, but there is certainly no evidence that Helene was anything like as bad as reported.
Finally, let’s compare it with two other hurricanes, which on paper were of similar intensity to Helene.
The Galveston Hurricane in 1915 had winds of 145 mph and minimum pressure of 940mb – in other words similar to Helene. Yet Galveston brought immense damage, killing 275 in Texas alone and causing immense damage to buildings, even inland in Houston:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1915_Galveston_hurricane
.
There followed in 1932 another Texas hurricane, Freeport:
Freeport has minimum pressure of 935mb, only slightly less supposedly than Helene. It left 40 dead. There clearly is no comparison between Freeport and Helene either.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Freeport_hurricane
What is particularly interesting is that Freeport exhibited similar rapid intensification to Helene, and also a similar route. Both hurricanes suddenly appeared off the Yucatan coast. Wikipedia describe this intensification.
We are repeatedly told that rapid intensification is essentially a new phenomenon, but this plainly is not true.
Helene cannot truly be said to be in the same ball park as Galveston and Freeport, despite supposedly being of similar intensity and strength. Unluckily there has only so far been one death recorded in Florida from Helene, when someone was hit by a falling road sign. Sadly this is the sort of accident which can happen in any storm event.
Even Cat 1 hurricanes can be deadly. But the media would like you to believe the hurricanes we get nowadays are unprecedented.