By Paul Homewood
FES 2024
As well as the problem of not having enough wind power at times, there is also the issue of having too much at other times. Consequently we have to pay generators to switch off.
The National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios this year estimated that 42.5 TWh would have to be constrained in 2035, rising to 64.5 TWh in 2040. Hydrogen production, using surplus power, would only really kick in during the 2040s, for reasons often discussed here, including the lack of any sort of infrastructure.
You will notice the reference to DACCS in the above chart. This is Direct Air Carbon Capture & Sequestration, which needs massive amounts of energy. The suggestion is that we would use about 20 TWh a year eventually, surplus power that would otherwise have been thrown away.
However you account for it, and whether you pay to constrain, produce hydrogen or capture carbon, that surplus power still has a cost, as the wind or solar farm will still want paying.. And 64 TWh at the current AR6 price for offshore wind is over £5 billion.
But it gets worse!
The FES assumes that, in addition to this curtailment, we would also export a lot of the solar power. Under the Electric Engagement scenario, for instance exports would amount to 99.4 TWh a year in 2035.
Given that when we have surplus wind power, the rest of NW Europe usually does as well, there won’t be much of a market for it. If 99.4 TWh has to be curtailed too, the cost would be another £8 billion. At best, we would probably be lucky to get half price for it.
Looked at another way, by 2035 we will have 142 TWh of surplus power. Total wind and solar power is projected at 446 TWh in 2035, so nearly a third is surplus to requirements. It is the economics of the madhouse!
Just one more cost of Net Zero.