By Paul Homewood
As I revealed yesterday, we will still need gas for years to come:
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Britain will be forced to rely on natural gas for years to come, National Grid has said, in a blow to Sir Keir Starmer’s green energy ambitions.
Demand for gas is now expected to be at least a fifth higher than previously expected in 2030, according to the National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO).
Under three potential “pathways” to net zero by 2050, the ESO also predicted Britain will keep burning “unabated” gas for power – that is, without any form of mitigation such as carbon capture – until at least 2036.
It underlines the scale of the challenge facing Sir Keir and Ed Miliband, the Energy Secretary, as they attempt to rewire Britain’s energy system at a faster pace than envisioned by the Conservatives.
The ESO said it expected gas demand to be between 642 and 724 terawatt hours in 2030, at least a fifth higher than the previous minimum and at the top end of what was predicted just a year ago.
The minimum predicted demand for gas in 2035 has also shifted upwards, from 331 terawatt hours to at least 433 terawatt hours.
Today, the country consumes the annual equivalent of 872 terawatt hours in natural gas.
Even after power sources such as wind and solar are generating the lion’s share of electricity, it will still be necessary to keep some gas-fired capacity in reserve to ensure the lights stay on, the ESO added.
The ESO’s report did not give reasons for the higher expected gas demand.
But Kathryn Porter, an independent energy analyst, said two likely reasons were regulator Ofgem’s decision to block a series of new electricity interconnectors with Europe, which were previously part of the ESO’s calculations, as well as the expected closure of various nuclear power plants this decade.
Ms Porter added: “It means you will just not be able to meet demand by the end of this decade without more gas.”
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It’s actually much simpler than that, Kathryn!
Previous projections were never more than fantasy. Finally the National Grid have woken up to reality.
